Recent discussions amongst several TV Meteorologists reveal the fact that few folks actually understand what the percentages mean when it comes to precipitation. “There’s a 40-percent chance for rain tomorrow.” But what does that mean?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “Precipitation Probabilities (PoP) is defined as the likelihood of occurrence (expressed as a percent) of a measurable amount of liquid precipitation (or the water equivalent of frozen precipitation) during a specified period of time at any given point in the forecast area. Measurable precipitation is defined as equal to or greater than .01 inch or .2 mm. Normally, the period of time is 12 hours, unless specified otherwise. The forecast area, or zone, is generally considered to be a county. In some geographically unique areas (mountains), the forecast area/zone may consist of portions of a county or two counties. At times, some NWS forecasters will use occasional or periods of to describe a precipitation event that has a high probability of occurrence, i.e., they expect any given location in a forecast zone area to most likely have precipitation, but it will be of an on and off nature. Usually, away from the mountains, each and every county is a forecast zone area itself.”
In other words, a 30-percent chance of rain means that the county where you live has a 30-percent chance of seeing rain during that forecast period. Still confused? Well, here at NewsChannel 5, we use terms that more folks are familiar with. Instead of a 30% chance of rain, we use the term “isolated” or “few.” Instead of a 70% chance of rain, you’ll see the word “scattered.” Hopefully, this will help make the forecast more user-friendly. Let me know what you think!
-Mark Johnson
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As November moves in and winter approaches, our thoughts now turn to the cold and snow of the coming season. Meteorologists have enough trouble predicting the weather 5 days out let alone 3 months down the road. In fact, after about 48 hours, our skill and accuracy begin a precipitous plunge toward downright futility. Why is this? Weather is choatic. We’ll never be able to measure all we need to measure in the atmosphere to get it right all of the time. In other words, we don’t have all the data we need. Yet, still, I am obliged to give a long-range winter forecast my best shot.
What factors do I need to consider when making a long range winter forecast? First and foremost, its El Nino. El Nino is the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters near the equator. This warming moves most of the major high and low pressure centers around the hemisphere. Where droughts are normal, floods can occur. Where cold is normal, look for warmer temperatures. Currently, we are experiencing a moderate El Nino.
I don’t expect El Nino to last the entire winter. I think it will begin to fade near the beginning of 2010. That said, El Nino may keep winter from entrenching itself across Northern Ohio in the short term…say thru mid-December. But, once El Nino starts to weaken, winter will tighten its grip.
The bottom line: Expect temperatures to fluctuate up and down thru mid-December with colder than normal temps settling in for January & February.
Precipitation in the form of snow should average within 10-percent of Normal across Northern Ohio.
I welcome you comments. -Mark Johnson
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...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WOOSTER OHIO...
LOCATION...APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH OF WOOSTER IN WAYNE COUNTY OHIO
DATE...JULY 31 2009
ESTIMATED TIME...745 AM TO 750 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 TO 100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.33 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.731 N / 81.919 W
ENDING LAT/LON...40.732 N / 81.912 W
* FATALITIES... NONE
* INJURIES... NONE
* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.
...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A DAMAGE SURVEY SOUTH OF
WOOSTER OHIO TODAY AND DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO OCCURRED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF JULY 31 2009. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT
APPROXIMATELY 745 AM EDT NORTH OF EAST MESSNER ROAD IN A WOODED
AREA...UPROOTING ONE TREE AND CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO
SEVERAL OTHER TREES. THE TORNADO THEN STRUCK A POLE BARN...CAUSING
MAJOR DAMAGE TO THE ROOF AND SURROUNDING FENCES. SHEET METAL FROM
THE ROOF WAS LOFTED AND CARRIED UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF MILES AWAY.
THE TORNADO DISSIPATED IN AN ADJOINING FIELD.
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 12 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 67 89 1881
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 47 32 1976
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 12 2009………..SUNRISE 611 AM EDT SUNSET 837 PM EDT
MAY 13 2009………..SUNRISE 610 AM EDT SUNSET 838 PM EDT
1934- A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum)
1971- Duststorms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. (The Weather Channel)
1972- In Texas, A cloudburst dumped sixteen inches of rain north of New Braunfels sending a thirty foot wall of water down Blueders Creek into the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers washing away people, houses and automobiles. The flood claimed 18 lives and caused more than twenty million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)
1982- A late season snowstorm struck the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The storm produced 46 inches of snow at Coal Creek Canyon, located near Boulder. (David Ludlum)
1987 – A heat wave persisted in central California. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Fresno CA and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)
1988- Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pendleton OR with a high of 92 degrees and Phoenix AZ with a reading of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 – Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system stalled over New York State drenched Portland ME with 4.50 inches of rain in 24 hours. Rains of 5 to 7 inches soaked the state of Maine over a four day period causing 1.3 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990- Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 11 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 67 87 1881
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 47 33 1977
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 11 2009………..SUNRISE 612 AM EDT SUNSET 836 PM EDT
MAY 12 2009………..SUNRISE 611 AM EDT SUNSET 837 PM EDT
1953 – A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel)
1966 – The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)
1970- A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1987 – Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1988 – Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 – Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 – Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2005 – Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 6 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 92 1959
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 45 26 1968
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 6 2009………..SUNRISE 618 AM EDT SUNSET 830 PM EDT
MAY 7 2009………..SUNRISE 617 AM EDT SUNSET 832 PM EDT
1933 – Charleston, SC, was deluged with 10.57 inches of rain, an all- time 24 hour record for that location. (The Weather Channel)
1975 – A massive tornado hit Omaha, NE, killing three persons, injuring 133 others, and causing 150 million dollars damage. The tornado struck during the late afternoon moving northeastward through the industrial and residential areas of west central Omaha, and lifting over the northern section of the city. The twister, which cut a swath ten miles long and as much as a quarter of a mile wide, was the mostly costly in U.S. history up til that time. (David Ludlum)
1987 – Eighteen cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 91 degrees at Portland OR, 101 degrees at Medford OR, and 104 degrees at Sacramento CA, were the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 – A major storm brought high winds to the western half of the country. A wind gust of 74 mph at Pueblo CO broke their May record established just four days earlier, and winds in the Arapahoe Ski Basin area of Colorado reached 85 mph. In North Dakota, the high winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust closing many roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 – Sixteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 17 at Bismarck ND and 26 at Minneapolis MN were the coldest of record for so late in the season. A reading of 43 degrees at the start of the Kentucky Derby was the coldest in 115 years of records. Light snow was reported in the Upper Midwest, with an inch reported at Chicago IL. (The National Weather Summary)
1990 – Snow and high winds prevailed behind a Pacific cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. Wind gusts above 50 mph were reported in southeastern Idaho, and heavy snow blanketed the Cascade Mountains of Washington State, with twelve inches reported at Stampede Pass. (The National Weather Summary)
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 5 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 89 1949
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 44 30 1968
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 5 2009………..SUNRISE 619 AM EDT SUNSET 829 PM EDT
MAY 6 2009………..SUNRISE 618 AM EDT SUNSET 830 PM EDT
1917- The same storm which a day earlier produced eight inches of snow in the Texas panhandle, produced a foot of snow at Denver CO, their heaviest snow of record for the month of May. (David Ludlum)
1930 – The temperature at College Park, VA, soared from 43 degrees to 93 degrees to begin an exceptional heat wave. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders – 1987)
1987- Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. A dozen cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 93 degrees at San Francisco, 98 degrees at San Jose, 100 degrees at Sacramento, and 101 degrees at Redding, were the warmest of record for so early in the season. The high of 94 degrees at Medford OR was also the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary)
1987 – Parts of the western U.S. were in the midst of a blistering May heat wave. The reading of 100 degrees in Downtown Sacramento CA was their earliest of record. Sacramento CA established daily record highs on nine of eleven days between the 4th and the 14th. (The Weather Channel)
1988 – A stubborn low pressure system continued to drench the eastern U.S. with rain. Thunderstorms again produced large hail in North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary)
1989- Thunderstorms swept across Georgia and the Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening hours spawning seventeen tornadoes. A tornado at Toccoa GA injured 15 persons, and a tornado at Chesnee SC killed two persons and injured 35 others. Five tornadoes in North Carolina accounted for five deaths, 88 injuries, and sixty million dollars damage. Thunderstorms also produced baseball size hail at Lake Murray SC, and wind gusts to 78 mph at Brooklyn MD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990- A strong Pacific cold front moving rapidly inland caused weather conditions at the east end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Washington State to quickly change from sunny and calm to westerly winds of 60 mph and ten-foot waves. Three recreational fishing boats capsized in heavy seas off Port Angeles resulting in five deaths. In California, temperatures soared above 90 degrees across much of the state. The high of 101 degrees in downtown Los Angeles was eight degrees hotter than their previous record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 4 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 64 89 1949
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 43 28 1971
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 4 2009………..SUNRISE 621 AM EDT SUNSET 828 PM EDT
MAY 5 2009………..SUNRISE 619 AM EDT SUNSET 829 PM EDT
1812- A storm produced snow from Philadelphia to Maine. A foot of snow fell near Keene NH, and in Massachusetts, nine inches fell at Waltham, located near Boston. (David Ludlum)
1917- A late season snowstorm in northwest Texas produced up to eight inches of snow in Potter County and Armstrong County. (David Ludlum)
1922 – Austin, TX, was hit twice by tornadoes which struck within thirty minutes of each other. Twelve persons were killed in the tornadoes. (The Weather Channel)
1977 – A tornado 500 yards in width struck Pleasant Hill, MO, severely damaging the high school and grade school. Only minor injuries were reported among the more than 1000 teaches and students due to excellent warnings and prior tornado drills. (The Weather Channel)
1987- Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S., with South Carolina hardest hit. Thunderstorm winds toppled trees seventy feet high in Spartanburg County SC, and knocked homes off their foundations near Bishopville SC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1988 – Thunderstorms produced large hail in North Carolina, but brought welcome rains to much of the rest of the eastern U.S. Residents of New England finally saw sunshine after about a week of clouds and rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989- Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, and there were 340 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter, and 9.39 inches of rain, resulted in more than 130 million dollars damage at Monroe LA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 100 mph at Epps LA and Fort Worth TX. A thunderstorm north of Mineral Wells TX produced high winds which unroofed a nightclub, turning it into a “topless club.” (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990- Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Ohio Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. A tornado at Augusta Springs VA killed two people and injured ten others, and another tornado caused 1.7 million dollars damage at Colonial Heights VA. Temp-eratures soared into the 90s in northern California. The high of 98 degrees in downtown Sacramento was their hottest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
April 29 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 62 84 1899
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 43 25 1977
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
APRIL 29 2009………SUNRISE 627 AM EDT SUNSET 823 PM EDT
APRIL 30 2009………SUNRISE 626 AM EDT SUNSET 824 PM EDT
1905 – The town of Taylor, in southeastern Texas, was deluged with 2.4 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. (The Weather Channel)
1910 – The temperature at Kansas City, MO, soared to 95 degrees to establish a record for the month of April. Four days earlier the afternoon high in Kansas City was 44 degrees, following a record cold morning low of 34 degrees. (The Weather Channel) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)
1963 – A tornado, as much as 100 yards in width, touched down south of Shannon, MS. The tornado destroyed twenty-seven homes along its eighteen mile path, killing three persons. Asphalt was torn from Highway 45 and thrown hundreds of yards away. Little rain or snow accompanied the tornado, so it was visible for miles. (The Weather Channel)
1973 – The Mississippi River reached a crest of 43.4 feet, breaking the prevous record of 42 feet established in 1785. (David Ludlum)
1987 – A storm off the southeast coast of Massachusetts blanketed southern New England with heavy snow. Totals of three inches at Boston MA, 11 inches at Milton MA, and 17 inches at Worcester MA, were records for so late in the season. Princeton MA was buried under 25 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 – Thunderstorms produced large hail and high winds in central Texas. Baseball size hail was reported at Nixon, and wind gusts to 70 mph were reported at Cotulla. Heavy rain in Maine caused flooding along the Pemigewassett and Ammonoosuc Rivers. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 – Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Arkansas, Louisiana and eastern Texas, with more than 70 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail was reported at Palestine TX. Hail as large as tennis balls caused ten million dollars damage around Pine Bluff AR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 – A storm system crossing northern New Mexico blanketed parts of the Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern High Plains with heavy snow, and produced blizzard conditions in central Montana. Much of southern Colorado was buried under one to three feet of snow. Pueblo tied an April record with 16.8 inches of snow in 24 hours. Strong canyon winds in New Mexico, enhanced by local showers, gusted to 65 mph at Albuquerque. Afternoon temperatures across the Great Plains Region ranged from the 20s in North Dakota to 107 degrees at Laredo TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
April 28 2009 NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 62 88 1986
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 43 25 1947
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
APRIL 28 2009………SUNRISE 628 AM EDT SUNSET 822 PM EDT
APRIL 29 2009………SUNRISE 627 AM EDT SUNSET 823 PM EDT
1921 – A severe hailstorm in Anson County, NC, produced hail the size of baseballs. Gardens, grain fields and trees were destroyed. Pine trees in the storm’s path had to be cut for lumber because of the hail damage. (The Weather Channel)
1928 – A coastal storm produced tremendous late season snows in the Central Appalachians, including 35 inches at Bayard WV, 31 inches at Somerset PA, and 30 inches at Grantsville MD. High winds accompanying the heavy wet snow uprooted trees and unroofed a number of homes. The storm caused great damage to fruit trees and wild life. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1987 – Twenty cities in the western and central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 95 degrees at Houston TX, 95 degrees at Lake Charles LA, and 94 degrees at Port Arthur TX, were April records. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 – Miami, FL, hit 92 degrees, marking a record eight days of 90 degree heat in the month of April. Squalls produced snow in the Washington D.C. area. Belvoir VA reported a temperature reading of 57 degrees at the time the snow began. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1989 – Strong northerly winds and heavy snow ushered cold air into the north central U.S. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 20 inches at Miles City. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas to the Southern Appalachians and the southern Ohio Valley. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Keller TX and White Settlement TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1990 – Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. during the day. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Inman SC. There were also more than one hundred reports of large hail and damaging winds, with better than half of those reports in Georgia. Strong thunderstorm winds injured four people at Sadler’s Creek SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Twenty-nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Highs of 88 degrees at Binghamton NY, 94 degrees at Buffalo NY, 89 degrees at Erie PA, 90 degrees at Newark NJ, 93 degrees at Rochester NY and 92 degrees at Syracuse NY, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)
Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!
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