Lake Erie still open for snow business!

Unfrozen lake means more Lake Effect Snow

Think this cold weather means no more Lake Effect Snow? Well think again! While January temps have been cold, they have not been frigid enough to freeze the surface of Lake Erie. An unfrozen lake is all Mother Nature needs to create those famous snow squalls that travelers dread.

Lake Erie remains unfrozen. This satellite photo taken at the beginning of January shows a mostly ice-free Lake Erie. A small line of ice can be seen along the south shore and a large area of ice is visible in the western basin.

The Lake Erie water temperature off of Cleveland Harbour is 33 degrees F. That’s very close to the freezing mark. Last week’s milder weather kept the lake temperature from falling further and forming the coating of ice that would seriously limit future snowfall across the snowbelts of Northern Ohio. As the photo above shows, much of Lake Erie is open water. The western basin near Toledo is the only area to show a decent ice cover. The water depth there averages only 25 feet deep, so, this area is usually the first to freeze. The central basin from Lorain to Ashtabula is deeper. Its depth averages about 65 feet. Its will take another two weeks of frigid, sub-freezing temperatures to get this area to freeze over.

Lake Effect snow is a unique phenomena that occurs downwind of all of the Great Lakes. It occurs when cold arctic air moves over the relatively warm, unfrozen waters of the Lake. The cold air picks up moisture and then is lifted up over the higher terrain downwind of the lake shore. That lifting causes the air to cool further and drop the moisture it had stolen from the lake surface. The moisture falls out of the air in the form of snow.

-Mark Johnson

Lake Effect Snow Blasts Northern Ohio

Here are the measurements of snow on the ground across Northern Ohio as of Moday morning:

…ASHTABULA COUNTY…
   PIERPONT 2SE          32.0″ as of  9:10 AM   1/4
   WINDSOR               19.0″  @ 8:20 AM   1/4
   CONNEAUT I-90         12.0″ @  9:32 AM   1/4
   ASHTABULA 1SW         11.0″  @ 8:57 AM   1/4
   ASHTABULA              9.2″  @ 7:57 AM   1/4

…CRAWFORD COUNTY…
   BUCYRUS                3.0″  as of  8:17 AM   1/4
   NEW WASHINGTON 5S      3.0″ @  9:13 AM   1/4

…CUYAHOGA COUNTY…
   SOLON                 18.0″  as of 9:02 AM   1/4
   GARFIELD HTS          13.0″ @  8:14 AM   1/4
   BROADVIEW HTS         11.0″ @  9:09 AM   1/4
   NORTH ROYALTON         7.0″  @ 8:11 AM   1/4
   CLEVELAND              5.0″  @ 7:58 AM   1/4
   CLE AIRPORT            4.0″  @ 9:26 AM   1/4
   CLEVELAND              4.0″  @ 9:08 AM   1/4
   EUCLID                 3.5″  @ 9:12 AM   1/4
   CLEVELAND-EDGEWATER    2.6″ @  8:01 AM   1/4

…ERIE COUNTY…
   SANDUSKY               3.0″ as of  9:14 AM   1/4

…GEAUGA COUNTY…
   THOMPSON 5SW          31.0″ as of  8:12 AM   1/4
   HAMBDEN TWP.          27.0″  @ 8:00 AM   1/4
   CHAGRIN FALLS         26.0″  @ 8:10 AM   1/4
   MONTVILLE             23.0″  @ 9:20 AM   1/4
   CHARDON               20.0″  @ 8:57 AM   1/4
   CHARDON               19.0″  @ 9:22 AM   1/4
   BURTON                15.0″  @ 9:02 AM   1/4
   RUSSELL TWP           14.0″ @  8:17 AM   1/4

…HOLMES COUNTY…
   FRYBURG                2.8″  as of 8:21 AM   1/4

…HURON COUNTY…
   NEW LONDON 3NW         6.0″ as of  8:19 AM   1/4
   NORWALK                3.5″  @ 8:02 AM   1/4

…LAKE COUNTY…
   PERRY TOWNSHIP        12.0″ as of  8:13 AM   1/4
   MADISON               11.0″ @  8:18 AM   1/4
   MADISON  5 S          11.0″ @  8:54 AM   1/4
   CONCORD TWP.           9.5″ @   9:14 AM   1/4
   KIRTLAND 4SW           9.0″ @  8:59 AM   1/4
   MENTOR                 8.0″ @  8:04 AM   1/4
   SOUTH MADISON          8.0″ @  8:09 AM   1/4
   MADISON-ON-THE-LAKE    6.5″ @  8:06 AM   1/4
   EASTLAKE               6.4″ @  8:08 AM   1/4
   WILLOUGHBY             6.0″ @  9:22 AM   1/4
   LEROY                  2.0″ @  9:32 AM   1/4

…LORAIN COUNTY…
   WELLINGTON             6.0″ as of   8:02 AM   1/4
   N RIDGEVILLE           4.0″ @  9:24 AM   1/4
   OBERLIN                4.0″ @  9:11 AM   1/4
   CARLISLE TWP           3.5″ @   8:09 AM   1/4

…LUCAS COUNTY…
   TOLEDO AIRPORT         1.5″ as of  9:27 AM   1/4

…MAHONING COUNTY…
   BOARDMAN SE            4.5″ as of  8:15 AM   1/4

…MEDINA COUNTY…
   HINCKLEY               7.0″ as of   9:16 AM   1/4
   MEDINA                 5.0   758 AM   1/4

…PORTAGE COUNTY…
   HIRAM                 21.0″ as of   8:58 AM   1/4
   KENT                   8.0″ @   8:18 AM   1/4

…RICHLAND COUNTY…
   MANSFLD ARPT           5.6″ as of   9:27 AM   1/4

…SANDUSKY COUNTY…
   FREMONT                2.0″ as of   8:03 AM   1/4
   CLYDE                  0.5″ @  9:00 AM   1/4

…STARK COUNTY…
   ALLIANCE               4.0″ as of  7:59 AM   1/4
   MASSILLON/PERRY TWP.   3.0″ @   8:03 AM   1/4

…SUMMIT COUNTY…
   BATH TWP              20.0″ as of   9:43 AM   1/4
   SAGAMORE HILLS        13.6″ @   8:59 AM   1/4
   TWINSBURG             13.0″ @   9:15 AM   1/4
   TALLMADGE              4.0″ @  8:58 AM   1/4
   CAK AIRPORT            2.0″ @  9:24 AM   1/4

…TRUMBULL COUNTY…
   MESOPOTAMIA           15.0″ as of   8:21 AM   1/4
   NEWTON FALLS           8.0″ @   8:22 AM   1/4
   YNG AIRPORT            6.0″ @   9:28 AM   1/4

…WAYNE COUNTY…
   DALTON                 4.0″ as of  9:31 AM   1/4
   KIDRON 1N              3.0″ @   9:16 AM   1/4
   WOOSTER 7N             3.0″ @   8:20 AM   1/4

…WYANDOT COUNTY…
   UPPER SANDUSKY         2.5″ as of  8:56 AM   1/4

Get Ready for COLD!

Mother Nature gives us little signs that changes are coming. If we see these signs soon enough, we can prepare. Well, folks, get ready for cold.

The Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) has been in a negative phase for that last few weeks.

Image from NSIDC: artwork by J. Wallace, University of Washington

The Arctic Oscillation refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in northern middle and high latitudes. The oscillation exhibits a “negative phase” with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a “positive phase” in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the negative phase, frigid winter air extends far south thru Canada into the middle of North America. Temperatures average below normal for days or weeks here, as long the AO stays negative.

While the AO is negative, expect colder than normal temperatures for Canada and the Eastern US (including Northern Ohio).

SNOW COMING?

 Hey Mark, 
   Well I hope your right with your snowy forecast being that you are the ONLY one in Cleveland calling for an accumulation. 19 Action news Jeff Tanchak is now calling for nothing but a few wet flakes with NO accumulation. Channel 3 has said all along that there will be no accumulation. Even ol man Dick Goddard says the ground is too warm for any accumulation. You are also the only one in Cleveland calling for moderate lake effect which I find quite silly. Wondering where you get your info from? The Weather channel is the only accurate forecast in Cleveland and has been for years. They are saying only a few rain/snow showers with no accumulation. The bottom line here…Why get everyone all worked up with holiday travel when you know there will be no weather related issues. Theres nothing coming through Thursday night or Friday morning. Hope you update your weather soon! Take care and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family! Greg

MARK’S RESPONSE:     Hi Greg,   Depends on where you live…I think we will have an area of snow over Northern Ohio Early Friday morning. Light to moderate snow is a possibility from Cuyahoga County eastward into Lake, Geauga, & Ashtabula Counties…maybe even in parts of Lorain County. The best chance for accumulations on grassy surfaces and sidewalks would be the Eastern Suburbs of Cleveland through Geauga and Ashtabula Counties. Lake Erie is still very warm so, near the shoreline, precipitation would likely stay rain throughout. Snow would, indeed, melt due to the warm soil temperatures after a few hours. Thanks for writing in!  

Sincerely,

Mark Johnson

70% Chance of Confusion

Recent discussions amongst several TV Meteorologists reveal the fact that few folks actually understand what the percentages mean when it comes to precipitation.  “There’s a 40-percent chance for rain tomorrow.” But what does that mean?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “Precipitation Probabilities (PoP)  is defined as the likelihood of occurrence (expressed as a percent) of a measurable amount of liquid precipitation (or the water equivalent of frozen precipitation) during a specified period of time at any given point in the forecast area.  Measurable precipitation is defined as equal to or greater than .01 inch or .2 mm.  Normally, the period of time is 12 hours, unless specified otherwise.  The forecast area, or zone, is generally considered to be a county.  In some geographically unique areas (mountains), the forecast area/zone may consist of portions of a county or two counties.  At times, some NWS forecasters will use occasional or periods of  to describe a precipitation event that has a high probability of occurrence, i.e., they expect any given location in a forecast zone area to most likely have precipitation, but it will be of an on and off  nature.  Usually, away from the mountains, each and every county is a forecast zone area itself.”

In other words, a 30-percent chance of rain means that the county where you live has a 30-percent chance of seeing rain during that forecast period. Still confused? Well, here at NewsChannel 5, we use terms that more folks are familiar with. Instead of a 30% chance of rain, we use the term “isolated” or “few.” Instead of a 70% chance of rain, you’ll see the word “scattered.” Hopefully, this will help make the forecast more user-friendly. Let me know what you think!

-Mark  Johnson

Mark’s Winter Weather Forecast

As November moves in and winter approaches, our thoughts now turn to the cold and snow of the coming season. Meteorologists have enough trouble predicting the weather 5 days out let alone 3 months down the road. In fact, after about 48 hours, our skill and accuracy begin a precipitous plunge toward downright futility. Why is this? Weather is choatic. We’ll never be able to measure all we need to measure in the atmosphere to get it right all of the time. In other words, we don’t have all the data we need. Yet, still, I am obliged to give a long-range winter forecast my best shot.

What factors do I need to consider when making a long range winter forecast? First and foremost, its El Nino. El Nino is the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters near the equator. This warming moves most of the major high and low pressure centers around the hemisphere. Where droughts are normal, floods can occur. Where cold is normal, look for warmer temperatures. Currently, we are experiencing a moderate El Nino.

I don’t expect El Nino to last the entire winter. I think it will begin to fade near the beginning of 2010. That said, El Nino may keep winter from entrenching itself across Northern Ohio in the short term…say thru mid-December. But, once El Nino starts to weaken, winter will tighten its grip.

The bottom line: Expect temperatures to fluctuate up and down thru mid-December with colder than normal temps settling in for January & February.

Precipitation in the form of snow should average within 10-percent of Normal across Northern Ohio.

I welcome you comments. -Mark Johnson

Tornado Confirmed in Wooster!

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WOOSTER OHIO...

LOCATION...APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH OF WOOSTER IN WAYNE COUNTY OHIO
DATE...JULY 31 2009
ESTIMATED TIME...745 AM TO 750 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 TO 100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.33 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.731 N / 81.919 W
ENDING LAT/LON...40.732 N / 81.912 W
* FATALITIES... NONE
* INJURIES... NONE

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
  CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
  STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A DAMAGE SURVEY SOUTH OF
WOOSTER OHIO TODAY AND DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO OCCURRED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF JULY 31 2009. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT
APPROXIMATELY 745 AM EDT NORTH OF EAST MESSNER ROAD IN A WOODED
AREA...UPROOTING ONE TREE AND CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO
SEVERAL OTHER TREES. THE TORNADO THEN STRUCK A POLE BARN...CAUSING
MAJOR DAMAGE TO THE ROOF AND SURROUNDING FENCES. SHEET METAL FROM
THE ROOF WAS LOFTED AND CARRIED UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF MILES AWAY.
THE TORNADO DISSIPATED IN AN ADJOINING FIELD.

On This Day In Weather History

THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
 May 12 2009                        NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   67        89      1881
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   47        32      1976

SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 12 2009………..SUNRISE   611 AM EDT   SUNSET   837 PM EDT
MAY 13 2009………..SUNRISE   610 AM EDT   SUNSET   838 PM EDT

1934- A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 

1971- Duststorms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. (The Weather Channel) 

1972- In Texas, A cloudburst dumped sixteen inches of rain north of New Braunfels sending a thirty foot wall of water down Blueders Creek into the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers washing away people, houses and automobiles. The flood claimed 18 lives and caused more than twenty million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 

1982- A late season snowstorm struck the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The storm produced 46 inches of snow at Coal Creek Canyon, located near Boulder. (David Ludlum) 

1987 – A heat wave persisted in central California. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Fresno CA and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 

1988- Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pendleton OR with a high of 92 degrees and Phoenix AZ with a reading of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 

1989 – Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system stalled over New York State drenched Portland ME with 4.50 inches of rain in 24 hours. Rains of 5 to 7 inches soaked the state of Maine over a four day period causing 1.3 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 

1990- Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

 

 

Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!

On This Day In Weather History

THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 11 2009                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   67        87      1881
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   47        33      1977

SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY 11 2009………..SUNRISE   612 AM EDT   SUNSET   836 PM EDT
MAY 12 2009………..SUNRISE   611 AM EDT   SUNSET   837 PM EDT

1953 – A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel) 

1966 – The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel) 

1970- A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 

1987 – Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 

1988 – Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 

1989 – Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 

1990 – Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 

2005 – Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.

 

 

 

 

Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!

On This Day In Weather History

THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
May 6 2009                          NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   65        92      1959
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   45        26      1968

SUNRISE AND SUNSET
MAY  6 2009………..SUNRISE   618 AM EDT   SUNSET   830 PM EDT
MAY  7 2009………..SUNRISE   617 AM EDT   SUNSET   832 PM EDT

1933 – Charleston, SC, was deluged with 10.57 inches of rain, an all- time 24 hour record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 

1975 – A massive tornado hit Omaha, NE, killing three persons, injuring 133 others, and causing 150 million dollars damage. The tornado struck during the late afternoon moving northeastward through the industrial and residential areas of west central Omaha, and lifting over the northern section of the city. The twister, which cut a swath ten miles long and as much as a quarter of a mile wide, was the mostly costly in U.S. history up til that time. (David Ludlum) 

1987 – Eighteen cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 91 degrees at Portland OR, 101 degrees at Medford OR, and 104 degrees at Sacramento CA, were the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 

1988 – A major storm brought high winds to the western half of the country. A wind gust of 74 mph at Pueblo CO broke their May record established just four days earlier, and winds in the Arapahoe Ski Basin area of Colorado reached 85 mph. In North Dakota, the high winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust closing many roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 

1989 – Sixteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 17 at Bismarck ND and 26 at Minneapolis MN were the coldest of record for so late in the season. A reading of 43 degrees at the start of the Kentucky Derby was the coldest in 115 years of records. Light snow was reported in the Upper Midwest, with an inch reported at Chicago IL. (The National Weather Summary) 

1990 – Snow and high winds prevailed behind a Pacific cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. Wind gusts above 50 mph were reported in southeastern Idaho, and heavy snow blanketed the Cascade Mountains of Washington State, with twelve inches reported at Stampede Pass. (The National Weather Summary)

 

 

 

 

Best wishes to you and may all your days be sunny and blue!